A more active than average hurricane season begins under the threat of US aid cuts

The Atlantic hurricane season has just begun, and the aftermath of storms like Milton, Beryl, and Helene in 2024 is still being felt. With a forecast of 13 to 19 tropical storms, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has said that, despite expecting a less active season than last year, the 2025 season remains above average.

But in addition to the impact that climate change has on hurricanes — increasing their intensity, increasing rainfall, and slowing them down — this year’s season has another peculiarity: it will be under the administration of Donald Trump, a president who denies climate change, and is on a mission to cut resources to agencies as fundamental to risk prevention and disaster response as NOAA and the U.S. aid agency, USAID. These decisions are causing uncertainty not just for the United States, but also for all of Central America and the Caribbean.

Monitoring hurricanes with an underfunded NOAA

The numbers aren’t clear, but the fact is that NOAA, which is responsible for researching and monitoring storms across the continent, has been a victim of Trump’s cuts. Media outlets like the BBC reported layoffs of nearly 800 workers, while experts familiar with the sector have heard that one in five workers had their contracts terminated.

This, says Mario Salgado, Risk Knowledge Officer at the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) for the Americas and the Caribbean, could translate into less and lower-quality data. “This work is done with nearly 120 Doppler radars, 16 environmental satellites, and what are known as hurricane hunters,” he recalls. And, although there is no way to know if this entire system is being affected, the signs will be evident when the first storm of 2025 is tracked.

“Until then, we won’t be able to measure how large the impact is,” adds Dr. Rafael Méndez Tejeda, a professor at the University of Puerto Rico at Carolina and a member of the island’s government’s Climate Change Committee. “We mustn’t forget that NOAA is part of the United States Department of Commerce precisely because its forecasts inform decisions about cruise ships, oil tankers and airplanes.” So, if climate change isn’t a concern for Trump, perhaps trade will be.

Preparing without USAID

If a potential lack of information is a cause for concern, there is even greater dismay about how the first hurricane season will be experienced after the pause in USAID assistance throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. Calculations made by the Center for Global Development (CGD) based on the latest documents shared by Congress in March estimate that $265,038,208 was cut for disaster preparedness worldwide.

“USAID has been a very reliable source of funding for various disaster reduction, preparedness, and response activities,” Salgado insists. “In the region, one of the initiatives that has been greatly affected is the early warning system for all people, which is also an initiative mandated by the United Nations Secretary-General.” A 24-hour warning, he recalls, can reduce economic and livelihood losses by up to 30%.

That entire chain, from early warning to hurricane recovery, has been shaken in the region. Knowing the extent is difficult due to the lack of transparency from the United States government, but there are specific cases. Science journalist Justine Calma revealed in The Verge that the Regional Disaster Assistance Program (RDAP), funded by USAID since 1989, was terminated in Latin America and the Caribbean. It included activities such as running drills with community members, purchasing supplies for evacuation shelters, and making sure people with disabilities can access services.

In a public letter, the Global Network of Civil Society Organizations for Disaster Risk Reduction (GNDR) also denounced the cancellation of a project targeting Honduras, Colombia, and Guatemala to increase the resilience of communities at risk of disasters, including those related to climate change.

Speaking from Honduras, Juan José Reyes, head of the Early Warning System, confirms that there has been “no perceived drop in technical information from NOAA” so far, but that the absence of USAID has limited certain risk management actions. In the Sula Valley, specifically, early flood warning drills were being conducted in conjunction with the U.S. agency. Nevertheless, Reyes prefers to maintain a glimmer of hope. “The gap will be filled,” he says, adding that other cooperating partners, such as Germany and Ireland, are already supporting them.

The feeling is similar in the Caribbean. Last week, ahead of hurricane season, Elizabeth Riley, director of the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA), explained that USAID cuts have not directly harmed the agency, as it does not receive funding from the United States. However, she confirmed that the countries under this umbrella, including the 15 members of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), have seen some areas left unprotected with the suspension of assistance programs.

Other countries, however, are already stepping in. The CDEMA and the United Kingdom, for example, have signed a memorandum of understanding to guarantee financial support for rapid response to emergencies such as those likely to arise with the upcoming storms. Each member country can receive up to $375,000 in support through this partnership.

Hurricane season will be one of the first reality tests for the new world order that Trump seeks to establish. “Personally, I think what we’re going to see is not a lack of information, but a privatization of it,” Salgado states with some trepidation. Scientific data, weather data, and hurricane data are needed for insurance and for the catastrophe bonds that countries issue to cover sovereign risks. “No one can afford to let that information disappear, but the question is whether access to it will continue to be free,” he wonders. As Tejeda concludes, right now, “you can give a weather forecast, but not a Trump forecast.”

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